Figure 2. Past and future energy trends (blue = fossil, red = total, including nuclear and renewable energy sources).
We might also note that the consumption rate of fossil fuels has already exceeded their rate of discovery. Yet, as of today, our resources are still being spent on building new nuclear and fossil plants or on replacing our aging refineries. This is in spite of both nuclear and fossil fuels being exhaustible, and while both are getting more and more expensive.
The Biological Life Cycle
The biological life cycle on Earth is based on the balance and interdependence of animal and plant life on the planet.
Photosynthesis takes up half of this cycle. In this half, the vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide and, using solar energy, splits water into oxygen (which is released into the atmosphere) and hydrogen, which, using a catalyst named chlorophyll, combines with carbon from the atmosphere to produce food for animals and humans. (Photosynthesis = H2O + sun energy + 6CO2 = C6H12O6 + 6O2). The other half of the biological life cycle is respiration, in which animals and humans inhale the oxygen generated by plants and obtain their muscle energy by digesting (burning) the glucose, cellulose, etc. produced by plants, while exhaling carbon dioxide (Respiration = C6H12O6 + 6O2 = 6 CO2 + 6 H2O + energy).
When the half-cycles of photosynthesis and respiration are in balance, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is constant. This concentration was ~ 280 ppm for 500,000 years. Today it is 360 ppm, and it is projected that by 2050 it will be over 500 ppm. This shows that plant and animal life on the planet is no longer in balance. This imbalance has passed the point when it could be corrected by planting trees. In order to absorb the excess carbon dioxide generated by the burning of fossil fuels, we would need to plant forests on an area equaling the surface of another Earth.
The goal of renewable energy processes is to reestablish the balance of the photosynthesis and respiration processes. The solar-hydrogen processes can supplement the photosynthesis part, but without the use of carbon.
The yearly solar energy that is received on each square meter of the Sahara is approximately 3000 KWh. Approximately 2500 KWh/m2/yr is the "insolation" in southern California, and 1250 KWh/m2/yr in New York City or in Connecticut (where I live). I will use my house as an example of how an energy-free home could be designed, how its operation could be automated, and how the costs and payback periods can be calculated.
If my roof (450 m2) was covered by 10%-efficient photovoltaic (PV) solar collectors, assuming my wife allowed me to cut down the trees around our home, which she would not, the collectors would generate 54000 KWh/yr. Our yearly electricity consumption, including a pool, is 15000 KWh/yr, for which I pay about $3000. My yearly oil and gas consumption is equivalent to 864 gallons of oil, having an energy content of about 32000 KWh.
Today, in this area, the same energy in the form of oil costs about half as much as it costs in the form of electricity. (This is due to the low oil and gasoline taxes. In Europe and in other parts of the world, the cost of gasoline is about twice what it is here because of higher taxes.) Therefore, my yearly total energy use (expressed in KWh units) is 47000 KWh. This quantity is 7000 KWh/yr less than the amount of solar energy that can be collected on my roof. Therefore, this excess can be used to recharge a plug-in hybrid or electric car.
The installed cost of 10%-efficient shingles is about $500/m2 or about $225,000 to cover my roof. In Connecticut, the government subsidy is 40%, lowering the total investment to $135,000 (without considering the added advantage of having new shingles). The local power company provides the bidirectional electric meter needed to connect to the grid free of charge.
The total value of 54000 KWh/yr of electricity (if purchased in the form of electricity at $0.2/KWh in our area today) is $10800. (If part of it is purchased in the form of fossil fuels, it is less, but that cost is also rising). Therefore, if we base the calculation on the present cost of electricity, the payback period is 14.5 years. Naturally, if electricity costs rise or if collector costs drop and efficiencies increase, the payback period will be shorter. Also, if we deduct from the total investment the value of covering the roof with new shingles, or if the location is, say, Nevada instead of Connecticut, the payback period is further reduced.