By Dipl.-Ing. Dieter Schaudel, Contributing Editor
In the early 1990s, fuzzy logic was the next big thing in automation technology. Hardly anybody will remember today that all relevant fairs around the world were dominated by the hype surrounding the saving grace of “fuzzy functions.” All of the control problems of the world were to be easily solved, along with world hunger, AIDS and environmental pollution. Those who did not have at least one “fuzzy” sign at their booth were considered notoriously outdated. Those who suggested “keeping one’s hair on” at panel discussions just didn’t understand the spirit of the time. Even though the word “hype” appeared only later, it would have well-suited the fuzzy logic euphoria of those days. The Concise Oxford Dictionary, 9th edition, defines hype as "extravagant or intensive publicity promotion" or, less subtly, "cheating, a trick." By no means does this question the high scientific and, in some cases, the practical value of the fuzzy set theory.
In recent years, publicity surrounding “wireless for automation technology” fatally recalls this fuzzy logic hype. Most recently, at ISA Expo and at Interkama at Hannover Fair, amazed users were told—and not for the first time—that wireless transmission technology for data and information in process engineering had almost solved all of the global automation problems, and that truly golden ages were now dawning for everyone in process automation. One merely had to agree on some standards, preferably American, for the rest of the world, but then one could really get going...
Everybody is familiar with such pronouncements, often disseminated by compliant journalists and consultants scenting big business. The marketing machinery of big providers revs up to peak performance. Interest blocks form and disintegrate again. The “who is not for me is against me” attitude circulates. Every provider jumps at least on one bandwagon, many on several, wanting to “careful not to miss a thing!” The customer, whose benefit every provider is concerned about, stands afar in amazement looking on or turning away. Much ado about nothing?
An associate of the Gartner Group described a hype cycle in form of a diagram in 1995. The Y axis represented awareness of a new technology, and the X axis was time elapsed since it became known, both subdivided into five sections: 1) technology trigger, 2) peak of inflated expectations, 3) trough of disillusionment, 4) slope of enlightenment, and 5) plateau of productivity.
Figure 1 shows the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.” Look at the borderline between the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and the “Trough of Disillusionment. See the yellow triangle at “Mesh Networks: Sensors.” That yellow triangle is a caution warning, meaning it will be more than 10 years until the Plateau of Productivity will be reached. This corresponds quite well with my personal estimation.
