Carbon and temperature trends
Figure 1: Global CO2 emissions (blue line) are currently accelerating, which if continued, will cause global warming to reach the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5 °C as early as 2040.
The CO2 concentration, the temperature rise, the carbon content of the atmosphere and the yearly emission are all rising and it is expected that the Paris-Katowice limit will be exceeded sooner than 2040. (∆T(°C) = Temperature rise[1], GTyC = Giga-Ton per year of Carbon emission, GTC = Giga-Ton of Carbon in the atmosphere, CO2 ppm = carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere).
[1] The value of the temperature rise depends on how the reference line is selected? If we consider the reference to be the average temperature between 1880 and 1889, in that case (according to the NASA report, published in the New York Times on 2019 February 7, the rise in global temperature (∆T) in 2016 reached 1.2 °C and in 2018 it was around 1.1°C.
As you can see in the figure, the planet is warming very slowly (1 °C to 2 °C per century). This might be suprising with such a great heat input from the sun, which equals the heat content of four Hiroshima bombs per second. The reason is the trumendous cooling capacity of the oceans and ice caps at the poles. As to the amount of ice, Antarctica alone is larger than the U.S. and is covered by a 7,000-foot-thick mountain of ice, which is the height of six Empire State buildings. Imagine what happens to the ocean levels when all that ice has melted.
Now, when process control engineers look at this process and are told to return it to preindustrial conditions, they would configure a control loop to do it. The setpoint of the loop is a 0.0 °C temperature rise (which corresponds to a CO2 concentration of 300 ppm), and the manipulated variable is the CO2 emission rate (flow into the atmosphere) because that flow causes the heating. So, we have a temperature control loop that's throttling (reducing) the emission flow. This flow today is 10 GTyC per year—in other words, about 1.5 tons of carbon (about 5 tons of CO2 per year) is sent into the atmosphere per person on our planet. But we have two problems that need to be answered before this loop will function:
- What do we manipulate to lower the flow of emission?
- How do we remove the excess CO2 (880 - 580 = 300 GTC) that's alseady accumulated during the past century?
Answering these questions is not easy. I'm in the process of writing a book on this very subject, which will be published later this year by ISA.
In answering the first question, we see on the figure that if our emission rate rises at about the same rate as it does today, we'll reach and exceed the limit set by the Paris Agreement by 2050-60. Naturally, if the rate rises, we'll reach the Paris limit sooner. As of today, that is the case, as global emission increased by 3.4% last year compared to 2017. If that continues, the Paris limit will be reached by around 2040 (with the consequence we all know).
So, how do we go about throttling the yearly emission? The answer is obvious: by making it profitable to do. And how do we make it profitable? By taxing the use of fossil energy and investing the collected tax into subsidizing the development of green energy use.
Solving the other problem (removing the accumulated 300 GTC of carbon from the air) is more difficult and it will take many pages in my forthcoming book to cover it. Here, I will just say that we have two options: Option A is to do nothing, which will result in continued rising of the global temperature and will bring the known consequences, or Option B, which is to develop new technologies. Some of my ideas have already published in Control in connection with the reversible fuel cell (RFC), which you can also learn about by listening to: http://techchannel.att.com/play-video.cfm/2011/8/25/Science-&-Technology-Author-Series-Bela-G-Liptak:-Post-Oil-Energy-Technology.
Béla Lipták
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